Write a threat assessment of al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Be very CLEAR and CONCISE in your writing. Remember to always put the “bottom line up front” (BLUF). This should happen at the very beginning of the essay as you provide an overall threat assessment of the threat and then also within the sections as you provide a BLUF for the various required elements. The BLUF should explain what is most important to know about each element of the threat. The BLUF should also explain why it is important to know these things.
Remember, this isn’t a history paper. Do not submit lengthy recitations of historical events. Including some history is OK as long as it is pertinent and clearly supports your BLUF. Include only the facts, evidence, data, etc. that supports your main point. In the intelligence world, consumers often have very little time to read a written product so the analyst needs to clearly get his/her most important points across clearly right up front.
The paper should include these 9 sections:
OVERALL THREAT ASSESSMENT: How much of a threat does this non-state actor actually pose to the United States, taking everything into consideration?
HISTORY: This is the section where you can discuss the history of the group, but, again, don’t give a long recitation of historical event. Discuss why and how the threat came to be. Why did it become a threat? What was its initial motivation? What environmental/societal/economic/etc. factors contributed to its formation?
MEMBERSHIP/LEADERSHIP: Who makes up the threat? Why do they participate in threatening the US? What is their motivation? Who are the leaders, if any? How effective are they?
STRUCTURE/ORGANIZATION: How is the threat structured? Is there an organization? What is it?
CURRENT GOAL/MOTIVATION: What is the current goal/motivation of the threat entity? What is it trying to achieve? Has it evolved since its formation?
TACTICS/CAPABILITIES: What tactics does the threat employ? How capable are they? What weapons/tools do they use?
FUNDING/CONNECTIONS: Where does the threat get funding? Supplies? Weapons? Does the threat have connections to any other organizations, nation-states, etc.?
LOCATION/SCOPE/MAGNITUDE: Where does the threat operate? How broad in scope is the threat? Are they a regional threat or a global threat to the US and/or its interests?
COUNTERING THE THREAT: Please suggest possible ways to mitigate or counter the threat. Try to think outside the box and be a little creative. I understand that you won’t have total information, but just give it a try!
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