A good way to write a paper is to look at the data and see what kind
of question it can help you answer.
For example, say I have data on Germany’s real GDP/capita, gov bond
yield, and gov consumption (as share of GDP). A question I would pose
is, How do the growth in gov consumption and gov bond yield in prior
year correlates with this year’s real GDP/capita growth? So, I’d
calculate growth rates for each variable. Then I’d plot the data on
two scattergrams using Excel. One scattergram would have gov bond
yield growth on the horizontal axis and real GDP/capita growth on the
vertical axis and the other scattergram would have gov consumption/GDP
growth on horizontal axis vs. real GDP/capita growth on vertical axis.
I’d make sure the years are aligned properly.
I’d examine the scattergrams and try to extract conclusions from them
— e.g. “Prior-year growth in yields tends to be associated with this
year’s positive or negative or no growth in real GDP/capita” and
“Prior-year growth in gov consumption tends to be associated with this
year’s positive or negative or no growth in real GDP/capita.”
Then, I’d try and organize my paper to make those points. In the
introduction I’d say why I think these questions are important — e.g.
“It is important to see how effective fiscal and monetary policy is in
stimulating economic growth.” I’d say what my main point or points
are. “I examine data for Germany on this and that and find that, for
the period analyzed, fiscal policy moves undertaken in prior year has
a positive or negative or zero effect on the growth of real
GDP/capita.” I’d also say how I argue my point or points: “I utilize
data from the Penn World Tables etc. and use basic descriptive
statistics to make my point.” I’d then say how the rest of the paper
is organized. That would be the introduction or section 1.
The rest of the paper’s sections could be as follows:
2. Macroeconomic theory: A discussion of relevant macro principles
that I use, like “Introductory macroeconomics textbooks say that
fiscal (the use of taxes and government spending) and monetary policy
(the manipulation of short-term interest rates and other measures) are
effective ways by which governments may influence the course of the
economy. The IS-LM model provides a framework to study the power of
fiscal and monetary policy. According to the IS-LM model, decreases
in the rate of taxation, increases in government spending, and a cut
in the short-term interest rate leads to an expansion in real output
in equilibrium. Etc.”
3. Data and data sources: A brief description of the data used and
where I drew the data from.
4. Analysis: I may begin by describing the main characteristics of the
data series used. For example: “Germany’s real GDP per capita has
grown at an average rate of x% per year. (See graph 1.) In the last
few years, Germany’s real GDP per capita has become more volatile as
the 2008 global recession slowed the economy down. (See table 1 with
the standard deviations of real GDP/capita growth for the periods such
and such…). Blah blah. Germany’s government bond 10-year yields
have gone down, etc., etc.” Here, you need to crunch numbers, take
averages, standard deviations, etc. Look at the graphs and see what
kind of story they tell you, and then put that story in words.
In the second part of the analysis, I look at pairs of variables
(growth of yields or growth of gov consumption vs., on the other hand,
real GDP/capita growth). And similarly, look at the graph and see
what story they tell me, and then I put that in words. (Remember here
to align the years, so that you look at policy moves from one year
before and see what happened this year in real GDP/capita growth.)
Basically, here, you are trying to convince the reader that the main
point or points stated in the introduction are solid.
You may want to write a last paragraph for this section summarizing
your points. One sentence per point.
5. Conclusions: Here you refer to the issues, flaws, deficiencies of
your analysis. You can say that with the data you had, there are many
more questions that you have answers for. Note that the
“other-things-equal” clause in the theoretical IS-LM cannot be
enforced here, so you really cannot tell what causes what, since many
things are going on at once. Also, use this section to emphasize the
importance of your findings, and suggest ways in which you could
continue your study to make it stronger, expand it, etc.
Next step: The promised graphs and tables have to be presented in an
Appendix. Make sure they are readable and easy to understand. Each
graph and table should have a number and name and each variable (or
number series) displayed properly labeled as well as the source of the
data. Then check and verify that the references inside of your text
are consistent with what the reader will find in the appendix.
Then, a References section where you list all the articles or books or
web sites consulted. Basically, for *every fact* that you cite in
your paper (as long as it is not the result of your own work), you
must provide a reference, unless you are absolutely sure it is public
knowledge (like New York City is located in the United States of
America).
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